HABITRACK
Habitat Prediction and Surveillance of Tick-borne Diseases using Modeling and Imaging Technology
Project content and objectives
In contrast to conventional approaches, the project uses drone images to identify habitats where ticks – and therefore potential sources of infection – are particularly common. In collaboration with entomologists, the findings on the spread of vectors and pathogens are being refined in order to improve the accuracy of the model. Machine learning algorithms are used for modeling, and weather data is integrated to take into account the effects of climate on tick populations. In a model region that is considered a hotspot for tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) and Lyme disease, volunteers will be invited to take a blood test (serological study) in later phases of the project. Dry blood sample self-tests (DBS) are used to determine how many people already have antibodies against the pathogens. This makes it possible to identify previously undetected infections and improve the available data. At the same time, predictions about the locations of infection foci are validated by field studies.
Objectives:
- Modeling and analysis of environmental factors for TBE and Lyme disease using ML algorithms and drones
- Prediction of TBE and Lyme disease hotspots
- Determining the prevalence of TBE and Lyme disease in the population
- Development of mathematical models for the population dynamics of ticks and the infection dynamics in humans and calibration with collected data
- Analysis of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions
- Establishment of detection and monitoring measures
Project structure
WP 1 & 2 Monitoring tick populations and infections
- Collect tick samples in the Amberg-Sulzbach and Schwandorf districts
- Test for TBE virus and Borrelia bacteria
WP 3 Habitat detection and prediction with drones
- Determine interesting parameters
- Finding predictors for TBE virus and borrelia
- Calculate land cover classifications with ML algorithms
- Determine risk factors for TBE virus/Borrelia and create risk maps
WP 4 Disease monitoring using dried blood samples
- Determine prevalence in the population
- Determine risk factors
- Cost-effective dry blood spot (DBS) tests for TBE virus and borrelia Develop antibodies
- Forming representative cohorts
- Self-sampling DBS study + questionnaire for cohorts in the districts of Amberg-Sulzbach and Schwandorf
- 3 test rounds to monitor changes
WP 5. Mathematical modeling – tick population, human population, model coupling
- Vector population model (complete life cycle, survival probabilities, infection dynamics, seasonality, weather/climate)
- Infection dynamics in humans (population stratification (location, age, etc.), infection dynamics, seasonality, weather/climate)
- Parameter identification and estimation
- Linking different models
- Model adaptation with findings from work packages 1-4 Analysis of the effects of interventions/weather/climate etc.
- Estimation of future development
- Derivation of risks and recommendations
Project managers and partners
Institute for Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine, LMU Klinikum München Munich, Germany | PD Dr. Noemi Castelletti, Prof. Dr. Michael Hoelscher, PD Dr. med. Andreas Wieser, Dr. Raquel Rubio-Acero, Christoph Sticha-Kaiser |
Fraunhofer Institute for Translational Medicine and Pharmacology (ITMP) Munich Munich, Germany | Dr. Lidia Chitimia-Dobler |
National Reference Center for Borrelia, Bavarian State Office for Health and Food Safety (LGL) Erlangen, Germany | Dr. Volker Fingerle |
Julius-Maximillians-University of Würzburg Würzburg, Germany | Prof. Dr. Hannes Taubenböck, Dr. Martin Wegmann |
Associated partner: German Consiliary Laboratory for TBE (DKF) Munich Munich, Germany | Prof. Dr. Gerhard Dobler |
- Research