HABITRACK

Habitat Prediction and Surveillance of Tick-borne Diseases using Modeling and Imaging Technology

Project content and objectives

In contrast to conventional approaches, the project uses drone images to identify habitats where ticks – and therefore potential sources of infection – are particularly common. In collaboration with entomologists, the findings on the spread of vectors and pathogens are being refined in order to improve the accuracy of the model. Machine learning algorithms are used for modeling, and weather data is integrated to take into account the effects of climate on tick populations. In a model region that is considered a hotspot for tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) and Lyme disease, volunteers will be invited to take a blood test (serological study) in later phases of the project. Dry blood sample self-tests (DBS) are used to determine how many people already have antibodies against the pathogens. This makes it possible to identify previously undetected infections and improve the available data. At the same time, predictions about the locations of infection foci are validated by field studies.

Objectives:

  • Modeling and analysis of environmental factors for TBE and Lyme disease using ML algorithms and drones
  • Prediction of TBE and Lyme disease hotspots
  • Determining the prevalence of TBE and Lyme disease in the population
  • Development of mathematical models for the population dynamics of ticks and the infection dynamics in humans and calibration with collected data
  • Analysis of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions
  • Establishment of detection and monitoring measures

Project structure

WP 1 & 2 Monitoring tick populations and infections

  • Collect tick samples in the Amberg-Sulzbach and Schwandorf districts
  • Test for TBE virus and Borrelia bacteria

WP 3 Habitat detection and prediction with drones

  • Determine interesting parameters
  • Finding predictors for TBE virus and borrelia
  • Calculate land cover classifications with ML algorithms
  • Determine risk factors for TBE virus/Borrelia and create risk maps

WP 4 Disease monitoring using dried blood samples

  • Determine prevalence in the population
  • Determine risk factors
  • Cost-effective dry blood spot (DBS) tests for TBE virus and borrelia Develop antibodies
  • Forming representative cohorts
  • Self-sampling DBS study + questionnaire for cohorts in the districts of Amberg-Sulzbach and Schwandorf
  • 3 test rounds to monitor changes

WP 5. Mathematical modeling – tick population, human population, model coupling

  • Vector population model (complete life cycle, survival probabilities, infection dynamics, seasonality, weather/climate)
  • Infection dynamics in humans (population stratification (location, age, etc.), infection dynamics, seasonality, weather/climate)
  • Parameter identification and estimation
  • Linking different models
  • Model adaptation with findings from work packages 1-4 Analysis of the effects of interventions/weather/climate etc.
  • Estimation of future development
  • Derivation of risks and recommendations

Project managers and partners

Institute of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine, LMU University Hospital, LMU MunichMunich, GermanyGermanyPD Dr. rer. Nat. Noemi Castelletti
Fraunhofer Institute for Translational Medicine and Pharmacology IPP, Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, National Consulting Laboratory of Tick-borne encephalitis IMBMunich, GermanyGermanyDr. Lidia Chitimia-Dobler, DVM, PhD
Bundeswehr Institute of MicrobiologyMunich, GermanyGermanyProf. Dr. Gerhard Dobler
National Reference Center for Borreliosis, Bavarian Office for Health and Food Safety LGLErlangenGermanyDr. Volker Fingerle
Julius-Maximillians-Universität Würzburg UWB, Department of Global Urbanization and Remote Sensing, Earth Observation Research Center, Institute of Geography and GeologyWürzburgGermanyAriane Droin, Dr. Martin Wegmann, Prof. Dr. Hannes Taubenböck
Fraunhofer Institute for Translational Medicine and Pharmacology IPPMunich, GermanyGermanyPD Dr. med. Andreas Wieser
KUM University Hospital MunichUniversity of MunichGermanyProf. Dr. Michael Hoelscher, Christoph Sticha, Dr. Raquel Rubio-Acero

Project partners (supported by a scientific advisory board):

  • Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology and Consiliary Laboratory for Tick-borne Encephalitis (TBE), Munich
  • Fraunhofer Institute for Translational Medicine and Pharmacology ITMP, Immunology, Infection and Pandemic Research IIP, Penzberg/Munich
  • Institute for Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine, LMU Munich Hospital
  • Chair of Global Urbanization and Remote Sensing, Research Cluster Earth Observation, Institute of Geography and Geology, Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg (JMU)
  • Bavarian Office for Health and Food Safety (LGL) and National Reference Center for Borrelia