OptimAgent
Optimized strategies to control epidemics in highly heterogeneous populations –
A decision-analytical approach to agent-based modeling
Project content and objectives
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic represents an unprecedented challenge for society and political decision-making. The aim of OptimAgent is to develop a standardized model-based framework to support decision-making processes in the field of public health. This framework enables the evaluation of a wide range of infection control measures. The focus is on the conception of an agent-based model that goes far beyond the simulation approaches available to date.
Through a flexible modular structure and a comprehensive consultation process with national and international modeling experts, the model will be optimized in particular to provide informative support for health policy decision-making processes during future pandemics.
In addition, it will be adaptable for endemic pathogens and realistically reflect the socio-demographic and regional structures of Germany. The agents on which the model is based combine demographic, socio-economic, sociological and psychological characteristics that influence individual contact behavior and the risk of infection and disease.
Based on the results of comprehensive and differentiated analyses of contact behavior, specific model modules on selective, targeted contact restrictions in different settings, contact tracing and testing strategies will be developed. The flexible modular model structure also offers the option of easily integrating additional components.
The focus of the project is to analyze the effects of different aspects of the heterogeneity of the population structure and their interaction on the incidence of infection. The aim is to gain new insights into the significance of heterogeneity in the spread of severe respiratory infectious diseases in the population and the effectiveness of pandemic control measures.
Project structure
The OptimAgent project is divided into the phases “Conceptualization”, “Development & Analysis” and “Application” and comprises six interlinked sub-projects.
Subproject 1 – Heterogeneity in contact behavior and in the use of prevention measures in different phases of an epidemic
Examines heterogeneity in contact behavior and compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions and their impact on transmission patterns in the population
Subproject 2 – Heterogeneity of the socio-psychological determinants of health behavior
Focuses on psychosocial aspects that influence health behavior and creates a module to generate artificial populations
Subproject 3 – Estimation of spatial and temporal heterogeneity – Methods for parameterization and model training
Develops a principled approach to derive time- and location-resolved epidemiological parameters from different data sources
Subproject 4 – Generation of representative scenario populations for epidemiological models
Creates a tool to generate representative scenario populations for epidemiological models
Subproject 5 – Development of the German Epidemic Micro-Simulation System
Will develop an agent-based reference model for Germany that integrates work from subprojects 1-4 and 6 and enables the simulation of complex scenarios.
Subproject 6 – Effects of synergistic interactions between exposure and susceptibility to infectious diseases on socioeconomic inequalities in disease burden and the effects of infection control measures
Creates a decision analytic module that assesses the effectiveness and efficiency of alternative non-pharmaceutical interventions.
Project manager
Subproject 1
- Dr. André Karch, WWU (sub-project leader)
- Veronika Jäger, WWU
- Dr. Rafael Mikolajczyk, MLU
- Dr. Vitaly Belik, FUB
Subproject 2
- Dr. André Calero Valdez, UzL (sub-project leader)
Subproject 3
- Dr. Markus Scholz, UnL (sub-project manager)
Subproject 4
- Dr. Jan Pablo Burgard, UnT (sub-project manager)
- Dr. Ralf Münnich, UnT
Subproject 5
- Wolfgang Bock, TUK, (sub-project manager)
- Dr. Bernd Hellingrath, ERCIS
- Johannes Horn, MLU
- Dr. Mirjam E. Kretzschmar, UMC
- Dr. Tyll Krüger, WUST
Subproject 6
- Jun.-Prof. Dr. Alexander Kuhlmann, MLU (sub-project leader)
- Berit Lange, HZI
- Dr. Wolfgang Greiner, UnB
- Dr. Beate Jahn, UMIT
- Dr. Uwe Siebert, UMIT
Project partners
Prof. Dr. Rafael Mikolajczyk
Dr. Johannes Horn
Dr. Daniel Rodenburger
Moritz Kersting
Carla Hartmann
Institute of Epidemiology, Biometry and Informatics at the Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg
Junior Professor Dr. Alexander Kuhlmann
Junior Research Group Health Economics and Health Services Research at Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg
Prof. Dr. André Karch
Dr. Veronika Jäger
Phuong Huynh
Institute for Epidemiology and Social Medicine at the Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster
Prof. Dr. Bernd Hellingrath
John Ponge
Institute for Information Systems at the Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster
Prof. Dr. Vitaly Belik
Andrzej Krzysztof Jarynowski
Institute of Veterinary Epidemiology and Biometry at the Free University of Berlin
Prof. Dr. Markus Scholz
Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology at the University of Leipzig
Prof. Dr. André Calero Valdez
Lilian Kojan
Institute for Multimedia and Interactive Systems at the University of Lübeck
Prof. Dr. Jan Pablo Burgard
Prof. Dr. Ralf Münnich
Soheil Shams
Chair of Economic and Social Statistics at the University of Trier
Dr. Wolfgang Bock
Lukas Bayer
Department of Technomathematics at the Technical University of Kaiserslautern
Dr. Berit Lange
Dr. Isti Rodiah
Department of Epidemiology at the Helmholtz Center for Infection Research GmbH
Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Greiner
Maren Steinmann
Sebastian Gruhn
Faculty of Health Sciences at Bielefeld University
Prof. Dr. Tyll Krüger
Wroclaw University of Technology
Prof. Dr. Mirjam E. Kretzschmar
Utrecht University
Prof. Dr. Beate Jahn
Prof. Dr. Uwe Siebert
UMIT – Private University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology GmbH (UMIT TIROL)
Richard Pastor
Steven Schulz
NET CHECK
Scientific Advisory Board
Vittoria Colizza
Head of research at the Pierre-Louis-Institute for Epidemiology
Luca Ferretti
Senior Researcher at the Big Data Institute, University of Oxford
Simon Cauchemez
Head of the Department of Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at the Institut Pasteur
Stefan Flasche
Co-Director of the Center for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID)
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Franciszek Rakowski
Head of the Polish modeling team
ICM University of Warsaw
Nicolas Popper
Chairman of DEXHELPP (Decision Support for Health Policy and Planning)
Coordinator of the COCOS (Center for Computational Complex Systems)
Vienna University of Technology
