Publications

Publications by OptimAgent and its sub-projects

1. Xu C, Bryzgalov A, Horn J, Jarynowski AK, Belik V, Jaeger VK, Karch A, Phuong HT, Suer J, Zambrano M, Schulz S, Hidalgo AR, Thampi A, Pastor R, Mikolajczyk R; OptimAgent Consortium. Intraindividual variability in non-household contacts: a German longitudinal study, April 2020–December 2021. BMC Infect Dis. Feb 21, 2026;26(1):749. doi: 10.1186/s12879-026-12940-4.
2. Ropeter J, Overhageböck N, Dreier M, Meyerdierks D, Imran A, Heinsohn T, Steinmann M, Kuhlmann A, Jahn B, Lange B, Klett-Tammen CJ, Harries M. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on diagnosis and healthcare utilization among patients with cancer (lung, breast, and pancreas) and cardiovascular diseases (heart failure, atrial fibrillation, hypertension, and chronic ischemic heart disease) in Germany: two systematic reviews. Syst Rev. May 22, 2026;15(1):172. doi: 10.1186/s13643-026-03192-z.
3. Morales I, Nguyen VK, Abd El Aziz M, Sultanli A, Bärnighausen T, Becher H, Ciesek S, Kampmann B, Lange B, Rupp J, Scheithauer S, Ward H, Karch A, Denkinger CM. Responsive population-based cohorts as platforms for characterizing pathogen- and population-level infection dynamics for epidemic prevention, preparedness, and response. Euro Surveill. June 2025;30(25):2400255. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2025.30.28.250717c.
4. Kheifetz Y, Kirsten H, Schuppert A, Scholz M. Modeling the Complete Dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in Germany and Its Federal States Using Multiple Levels of Data. Viruses. July 14, 2025;17(7):981. doi: 10.3390/v17070981.
5. Chaturvedi M, Bartz A, Denkinger CM, Klett-Tammen C, Kretzschmar M, Kuhlmann A, Lange B, Marx FM, Mikolajczyk R, Monsef I, Nguyen HT, Suer J, Skoetz N, Jaeger VK, Karch A. Guidelines on reporting and assessing dynamic mathematical models of infectious diseases: a scoping review. BMC Infect Dis. Dec. 31, 2025;26(1):182. doi: 10.1186/s12879-025-12211-8.
6. Phuong HT, Bartz A, Jarynowski AK, Lange B, Jarvis CI, Rübsamen N, Mikolajczyk RT, Scholz S, Berger T, Heinsohn T, Belik V, Karch A, Jaeger VK. Changes in social contact patterns in Germany during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic—an analysis based on the COVIMOD study. BMC Infect Dis. April 23, 2025;25(1):588. doi: 10.1186/s12879-025-10917-3.
7. Marsall P, Fandrich M, Griesbaum J, Harries M, Lange B; RESPINOW Study Consortium; Ascough S, Dayananda P, Chiu C, Remppis J, Ganzenmueller T, Renk H, Strengert M, Schneiderhan-Marra N, Dulovic A. Development and validation of a respiratory syncytial virus multiplex immunoassay. Infection. April 2024;52(2):597-609. doi: 10.1007/s15010-024-02180-6.
8. Harries M, Jaeger VK, Rodiah I, Hassenstein MJ, Ortmann J, Dreier M, von Holt I, Brinkmann M, Dulovic A, Gornyk D, Hovardovska O, Kuczewski C, Kurosinski MA, Schlotz M, Schneiderhan-Marra N, Strengert M, Krause G, Sester M, Klein F, Petersmann A, Karch A, Lange B.: Bridging the gap—estimation of the 2022/2023 SARS-CoV-2 healthcare burden in Germany based on multidimensional data from a rapid epidemic panel. Int J Infect Dis. Feb 2024;139:50-58. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2023.11.014.
9. Lange B, Jaeger VK, Harries M, Rücker V, Streeck H, Blaschke S, Petersmann A, Toepfner N, Nauck M, Hassenstein MJ, Dreier M, von Holt I, Budde A, Bartz A, Ortmann J, Kurosinski MA, Berner R, Borsche M, Brandhorst G, Brinkmann M, Budde K, Deckena M, Engels G, Fenzlaff M, Härtel C, Hovardovska O, Katalinic A, Kehl K, Kohls M, Krüger S, Lieb W, Meyer-Schlinkmann KM, Pischon T, Rosenkranz D, Rübsamen N, Rupp J, Schäfer C, Schattschneider M, Schlegtendal A, Schlinkert S, Schmidbauer L, Schulze-Wundling K, Störk S, Tiemann C, Völzke H, Winter T, Klein C, Liese J, Brinkmann F, Ottensmeyer PF, Reese JP, Heuschmann P, Karch A.: Estimates of protection levels against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 in Germany before the 2022/2023 winter season: the IMMUNEBRIDGE project. Infection. Feb. 2024;52(1):139-153. doi: 10.1007/s15010-023-02071-2.
10. Jarynowski, A., Czekaj, Ł., Semenov, A., Belik, V. (2024). A Multiplex Network Approach for Modeling the Spread of African Swine Fever in Poland. In: Hà, M.H., Zhu, X., Thai, M.T. (eds.) Computational Data and Social Networks. CSoNet 2023. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol. 14479. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-0669-3_32.
11. Dan S, Chen Y, Chen Y, Monod M, Jaeger VK, Bhatt S, Karch A, Ratmann O; Machine Learning & Global Health network. Estimating fine-grained age structure and temporal trends in human contact patterns from coarse-grained contact data: The Bayesian rate consistency model. PLoS Comput Biol. June 5, 2023;19(6):e1011191. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011191.
12. Schulze-Wundling K, Ottensmeyer PF, Meyer-Schlinkmann KM, Deckena M, Krüger S, Schlinkert S, Budde A, Münstermann D, Töpfner N, Petersmann A, Nauck M, Karch A, Lange B, Blaschke S, Tiemann C, Streeck H. Immunity Against SARS-CoV-2 in the German Population. Dtsch Arztebl Int. May 12, 2023;120(19):337-344. doi: 10.3238/arztebl.m2023.0072.
13. Schulz S, Pastor R, Koyuncuoglu C, et al. Real-time Dissection and Forecast of Infection Dynamics during a Pandemic. medRxiv; 2023. DOI: 10.1101/2023.03.02.23286502. Link
14. Jarynowski, A.; Jędrzejczyk, K.; Maksymowicz, S. (2023): Grain and Food Security as a Tool of Biopolitics: Real-Time Internet Monitoring and Crisis Management. E-methodology 9(9), pp. 96–112. Link
15. Wójta-Kempa, M., Skawina, A., Płatek, D., Jarynowski, A., Skawina, I., & Belik, V. (2023). Social values are significant factors in controlling the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. E-Methodology, 9(9), 33–39. https://doi.org/10.15503/emet.2022.33.39.
16. Johannes Ponge, Dennis Horstkemper, Bernd Hellingrath, Lukas Bayer, Wolfgang Bock, André Karch: Evaluating Parallelization Strategies for Large-Scale Individual-Based Infectious Disease Simulations. WSC 2023: 1088–1099. doi: 10.1109/WSC60868.2023.10407633. Link
17. Engels G, Oechsle AL, Schlegtendal A, Maier C, Holzwarth S, Streng A, Lange B, Karch A, Petersmann A, Streeck H, Blaschke-Steinbrecher S, Härtel C, Schroten H, von Kries R, Berner R, Liese J, Brinkmann F, Toepfner N; IMMUNEBRIDGE KIDS study group. SARS-CoV-2 seroimmunity and quality of life in children and adolescents in relation to infections and vaccinations: the IMMUNEBRIDGE KIDS cross-sectional study, 2022. Infection. Oct. 2023;51(5):1531-1539. doi: 10.1007/s15010-023-02052-5.

1. Müller L, Mallick P, Marín-Carballo AB, Dönges P, Kettlitz RJN, Klett-Tammen CJ, Kretzschmar M, Priesemann V, Contreras S. The testing paradox may explain the increased observed prevalence of bacterial STIs among MSM on HIV PrEP: A modeling study. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. Nov. 4, 2025;122(44):e2524944122. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2524944122.
2. Chaturvedi M, Bartz A, Denkinger CM, Klett-Tammen C, Kretzschmar M, Kuhlmann A, Lange B, Marx FM, Mikolajczyk R, Monsef I, Nguyen HT, Suer J, Skoetz N, Jaeger VK, Karch A. Guidelines on reporting and assessing dynamic mathematical models of infectious diseases: a scoping review. BMC Infect Dis. Dec. 31, 2025;26(1):182. doi: 10.1186/s12879-025-12211-8.
3. Böff L, Bartz A, Harries M; MuSPAD Consortium Group; COVIMOD Consortium Group; RESPINOW Consortium Group; Karch A, Aigner A, Jaeger VK, Lange B. Dynamics of contact behavior by self-reported COVID-19 vaccination and infection status during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany: an analysis of two large population-based studies. BMC Med. July 7, 2025;23(1):406. doi: 10.1186/s12916-025-04211-x.
4. Eggeling R, König F, Koeppel L, Böhler LI, Böhm M, Schmeißer N, Pfeifer N, Kaiser R; Clinical Virology Network. Long-term impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on respiratory viruses in Germany. BMC Public Health. Aug 5, 2025;25(1):2654. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-23983-8.
5. Morales I, Nguyen VK, Abd El Aziz M, Sultanli A, Bärnighausen T, Becher H, Ciesek S, Kampmann B, Lange B, Rupp J, Scheithauer S, Ward H, Karch A, Denkinger CM. Responsive population-based cohorts as platforms for characterizing pathogen- and population-level infection dynamics for epidemic prevention, preparedness, and response. Euro Surveill. June 2025;30(25):2400255. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2025.30.25.2400255. Erratum in: Euro Surveill. July 2025;30(28). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2025.30.28.250717c.
6. Fome AD, Rodiah I, Bock W, Lange B, Klar A. The interplay of influenza and COVID-19 in Germany, January 2020–December 2022: a study of competitive disease dynamics with quarantine measures and partial cross-immunity. BMC Public Health. September 9, 2025;25(1):3044. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-24362-z.
7. Amaral AVR, Wolffram D, Moraga P, Bracher J. Post-processing and weighted combination of infectious disease nowcasts. PLoS Comput Biol. March 3, 2025;21(3):e1012836. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012836.
8. Wagner, J., Bauer, S., Contreras, S., Fleddermann, L., Parlitz, U., & Priesemann, V. (2023). Societal feedback induces complex and chaotic dynamics in endemic infectious diseases. Phys. Rev. Research 7, Vol. 7, No. 1, 013308. Published March 24, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.7.013308
9. H. Zunker, P. Dönges, P. Lenz, S. Contreras, M. J. Kühn. “Risk-mediated dynamic regulation of effective contacts desynchronizes outbreaks in metapopulation epidemic models.” Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 199(2), 116782 (2025). doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2025.116782
10. Kettlitz R, Harries M, Contreras S, Reinecke J, Wieder MS, von Lengerke T, Castell S, Lange B, Klett-Tammen CJ; PCR-4-ALL study group; MuSPAD study group. Self-reported poliomyelitis vaccination and documentation in adults indicate high uptake: a digital German epidemic panel, December 2024. BMC Public Health. Oct 16, 2025;25(1):3514. doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-24865-9.
11. Lange B, Jaeger VK, Harries M, Rücker V, Streeck H, Blaschke S, Petersmann A, Toepfner N, Nauck M, Hassenstein MJ, Dreier M, von Holt I, Budde A, Bartz A, Ortmann J, Kurosinski MA, Berner R, Borsche M, Brandhorst G, Brinkmann M, Budde K, Deckena M, Engels G, Fenzlaff M, Härtel C, Hovardovska O, Katalinic A, Kehl K, Kohls M, Krüger S, Lieb W, Meyer-Schlinkmann KM, Pischon T, Rosenkranz D, Rübsamen N, Rupp J, Schäfer C, Schattschneider M, Schlegtendal A, Schlinkert S, Schmidbauer L, Schulze-Wundling K, Störk S, Tiemann C, Völzke H, Winter T, Klein C, Liese J, Brinkmann F, Ottensmeyer PF, Reese JP, Heuschmann P, Karch A. Estimates of protection levels against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 in Germany before the 2022/2023 winter season: the IMMUNEBRIDGE project. Infection. Feb 2024;52(1):139-153. doi: 10.1007/s15010-023-02071-2.
12. Chaturvedi M, Rodiah I, Kretzschmar M, Scholz S, Lange B, Karch A, Jaeger VK. Estimating the relative importance of epidemiological and behavioral parameters for mpox transmission: a modeling study. BMC Med. July 18, 2024;22(1):297. doi: 10.1186/s12916-024-03515-8.
13. Oróstica KY, Mohr SB, Dehning J, Bauer S, Medina-Ortiz D, Iftekhar EN, Mujica K, Covarrubias PC, Ulloa S, Castillo AE, Daza-Sánchez A, Verdugo RA, Fernández J, Olivera-Nappa Á, Priesemann V, Contreras S. Early mutational signatures and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma and Lambda variants in Chile. Sci Rep. July 11, 2024;14(1):16000. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-66885-2.
14. Marsall P, Fandrich M, Griesbaum J, Harries M, Lange B; RESPINOW Study Consortium; Ascough S, Dayananda P, Chiu C, Remppis J, Ganzenmueller T, Renk H, Strengert M, Schneiderhan-Marra N, Dulovic A. Development and validation of a respiratory syncytial virus multiplex immunoassay. Infection. April 2024;52(2):597-609. doi: 10.1007/s15010-024-02180-6.
15. Harries M, Jaeger VK, Rodiah I, Hassenstein MJ, Ortmann J, Dreier M, von Holt I, Brinkmann M, Dulovic A, Gornyk D, Hovardovska O, Kuczewski C, Kurosinski MA, Schlotz M, Schneiderhan-Marra N, Strengert M, Krause G, Sester M, Klein F, Petersmann A, Karch A, Lange B. Bridging the gap—estimation of the 2022/2023 SARS-CoV-2 healthcare burden in Germany based on multidimensional data from a rapid epidemic panel. Int J Infect Dis. Feb 2024;139:50-58. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2023.11.014.
16. Engels G, Oechsle AL, Schlegtendal A, Maier C, Holzwarth S, Streng A, Lange B, Karch A, Petersmann A, Streeck H, Blaschke-Steinbrecher S, Härtel C, Schroten H, von Kries R, Berner R, Liese J, Brinkmann F, Toepfner N; IMMUNEBRIDGE KIDS study group. SARS-CoV-2 seroimmunity and quality of life in children and adolescents in relation to infections and vaccinations: the IMMUNEBRIDGE KIDS cross-sectional study, 2022. Infection. Oct. 2023;51(5):1531-1539. doi: 10.1007/s15010-023-02052-5.
17. Zierenberg, J., Paul Spitzner, F., Dehning, J., Priesemann, V., Weigel, M., & Wilczek, M. (2023). How contact patterns destabilize and modulate epidemic outbreaks. New Journal of Physics, 25(5), 053033. DOI 10.1088/1367-2630/acd1a7
18. Contreras S, Iftekhar EN, Priesemann V. From emergency response to long-term management: the many faces of the endemic state of COVID-19. Lancet Reg Health Eur. May 26, 2023;30:100664. doi: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100664.
19. Kekić A, Dehning J, Gresele L, von Kügelgen J, Priesemann V, Schölkopf B. Evaluating vaccine allocation strategies using simulation-assisted causal modeling. Patterns (N Y). June 9, 2023;4(6):100739. doi: 10.1016/j.patter.2023.100739.
20. Wolffram D, Abbott S, An der Heiden M, Funk S, Günther F, Hailer D, Heyder S, Hotz T, van de Kassteele J, Küchenhoff H, Müller-Hansen S, Syliqi D, Ullrich A, Weigert M, Schienle M, Bracher J. Collaborative nowcasting of COVID-19 hospitalization incidences in Germany. PLoS Comput Biol. Aug 11, 2023;19(8):e1011394. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011394.
21. Schulze-Wundling K, Ottensmeyer PF, Meyer-Schlinkmann KM, Deckena M, Krüger S, Schlinkert S, Budde A, Münstermann D, Töpfner N, Petersmann A, Nauck M, Karch A, Lange B, Blaschke S, Tiemann C, Streeck H. Immunity Against SARS-CoV-2 in the German Population. Dtsch Arztebl Int. May 12, 2023;120(19):337-344. doi: 10.3238/arztebl.m2023.0072.
22. Dehning J, Mohr SB, Contreras S, Dönges P, Iftekhar EN, Schulz O, Bechtle P, Priesemann V. Impact of the Euro 2020 Championship on the Spread of COVID-19. Nat Commun. Jan. 18, 2023;14(1):122. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-35512-x.
23. Contreras, S., Oróstica, K.Y., Daza-Sanches, A., Wagner, J., Dönges, P., Medina-Ortiz, D., Jara, M., Verdugo, R., Conca, C., Priesemann, V., Olivera-Nappa, A. Model-based assessment of sampling protocols for infectious disease genomic surveillance. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Volume 167, 2023, 113093. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.113093.
24. Dan S, Chen Y, Chen Y, Monod M, Jaeger VK, Bhatt S, Karch A, Ratmann O; Machine Learning & Global Health network. Estimating fine-grained age structure and temporal trends in human contact patterns from coarse-grained contact data: The Bayesian rate consistency model. PLoS Comput Biol. June 5, 2023;19(6):e1011191. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011191.
25. Bracher J, Wolffram D, Deuschel J, Görgen K, Ketterer JL, Ullrich A, Abbott S, Barbarossa MV, Bertsimas D, Bhatia S, Bodych M, Bosse NI, Burgard JP, Castro L, Fairchild G, Fiedler J, Fuhrmann J, Funk S, Gambin A, Gogolewski K, Heyder S, Hotz T, Kheifetz Y, Kirsten H, Krueger T, Krymova E, Leithäuser N, Li ML, Meinke JH, Miasojedow B, Michaud IJ, Mohring J, Nouvellet P, Nowosielski JM, Ozanski T, Radwan M, Rakowski F, Scholz M, Soni S, Srivastava A, Gneiting T, Schienle M. National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021. Commun Med (Lond). Oct. 31, 2022;2(1):136. doi: 10.1038/s43856-022-00191-8.

1. Müller L, Mallick P, Marín-Carballo AB, Dönges P, Kettlitz RJN, Klett-Tammen CJ, Kretzschmar M, Priesemann V, Contreras S. The testing paradox may explain the increased observed prevalence of bacterial STIs among MSM on HIV PrEP: A modeling study. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. Nov. 4, 2025;122(44):e2524944122. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2524944122.
2. Brunekreef J, Teslya A, Buskens V, Nunner H, Kretzschmar M. Impact of adherence and stringency on the effectiveness of lockdown measures: A modeling study. PLoS One. Dec. 19, 2025;20(12):e0338818. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0338818.
3. H. Zunker, P. Dönges, P. Lenz, S. Contreras, M. J. Kühn. “Risk-mediated dynamic regulation of effective contacts desynchronizes outbreaks in metapopulation epidemic models.” Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 199(2), 116782 (2025). doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2025.116782
4. Oróstica KY, Mohr SB, Dehning J, Bauer S, Medina-Ortiz D, Iftekhar EN, Mujica K, Covarrubias PC, Ulloa S, Castillo AE, Daza-Sánchez A, Verdugo RA, Fernández J, Olivera-Nappa Á, Priesemann V, Contreras S. Early mutational signatures and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma and Lambda variants in Chile. Sci Rep. July 11, 2024;14(1):16000. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-66885-2.
5. Dehning J, Mohr SB, Contreras S, Dönges P, Iftekhar EN, Schulz O, Bechtle P, Priesemann V. Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19. Nat Commun. Jan. 18, 2023;14(1):122. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-35512-x.
6. Wagner, J., Bauer, S., Contreras, S., Fleddermann, L., Parlitz, U., & Priesemann, V. (2023). Societal feedback induces complex and chaotic dynamics in endemic infectious diseases. Phys. Rev. Research 7, Vol. 7, No. 1, 013308. Published March 24, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.7.013308.
7. Kekić A, Dehning J, Gresele L, von Kügelgen J, Priesemann V, Schölkopf B. Evaluating vaccine allocation strategies using simulation-assisted causal modeling. Patterns (N Y). June 9, 2023;4(6):100739. doi: 10.1016/j.patter.2023.100739.
8. Contreras S, Iftekhar EN, Priesemann V. From emergency response to long-term management: the many faces of the endemic state of COVID-19. Lancet Reg Health Eur. May 26, 2023;30:100664. doi: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100664.
9. Zierenberg, J., Paul Spitzner, F., Dehning, J., Priesemann, V., Weigel, M., & Wilczek, M. (2023). How contact patterns destabilize and modulate epidemic outbreaks. New Journal of Physics, 25(5), 053033. link

1. A. Wendler, L. Plötzke, H. Tritzschak, M. J. Kühn A nonstandard numerical scheme for a novel SECIR integro-differential equation-based model allowing nonexponentially distributed stay times. Applied Mathematics and Computation 509, 129636 (2026) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2025.129636
2. L. Plötzke, A. Wendler, R. Schmieding, M. J. Kühn Revisiting the Linear Chain Trick in epidemiological models: Implications of underlying assumptions for numerical solutions. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 239, pp. 823-844 (2026) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2025.07.045
3. Schmid, N., Fernandes del Pozo, D., Waegeman, W., & Hasenauer, J. (2025). Assessment of Uncertainty Quantification in Universal Differential Equations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 383(2293), 20240444. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2024.0444
4. Philipps M, Schmid N, Hasenauer J. Current state and open problems in universal differential equations for systems biology. NPJ Syst Biol Appl. Aug. 30, 2025;11(1):101. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41540-025-00550-w
5. Schmid N, Bicker J, Hofmann AF, Wallrafen-Sam K, Kerkmann D, Wieser A, Kühn MJ, Hasenauer J. Integrative modeling of the spread of serious infectious diseases and corresponding wastewater dynamics. Epidemics. June 2025;51:100836. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2025.100836
6. Merkt, S., Fuhrmann, L., Dudkin, E., Schlitzer, A., Niethammer, B., & Hasenauer, J. (2025). A Dynamic Model for Waddington’s Landscape Accounting for Cell-to-Cell Communication. Mathematical Biosciences, 390, 109537. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2025.109537
7. Bicker J, Schmieding R, Meyer-Hermann M, Kühn MJ. Hybrid metapopulation agent-based epidemiological models for efficient insights at the individual level: A contribution to green computing. Infect Dis Model. Jan. 10, 2025;10(2):571-590. https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.04386
8. Merkt S, Ali S, Gudina EK, Adissu W, Gize A, Muenchhoff M, Graf A, Krebs S, Elsbernd K, Kisch R, Betizazu SS, Fantahun B, Bekele D, Rubio-Acero R, Gashaw M, Girma E, Yilma D, Zeynudin A, Paunovic I, Hoelscher M, Blum H, Hasenauer J, Kroidl A, Wieser A. Long-term monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and variants in Ethiopia provides predictions for immunity and cross-immunity. Nat Commun. April 24, 2024;15(1):3463. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-47556-2
9. Gudina EK, Elsbernd K, Yilma D, Kisch R, Wallrafen-Sam K, Abebe G, Mekonnen Z, Berhane M, Gerbaba M, Suleman S, Mamo Y, Rubio-Acero R, Ali S, Zeynudin A, Merkt S, Hasenauer J, Chala TK, Wieser A, Kroidl A. Tailoring COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies in High-Seroprevalence Settings: Insights from Ethiopia. Vaccines (Basel). July 5, 2024;12(7):745. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines12070745
10. Contento L, Castelletti N, Raimúndez E, Le Gleut R, Schälte Y, Stapor P, Hinske LC, Hoelscher M, Wieser A, Radon K, Fuchs C, Hasenauer J; KoCo19 study group. Integrative modeling of reported case numbers and seroprevalence reveals time-dependent test efficiency and infectious contacts. Epidemics. June 2023;43:100681. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100681
11. Tacconelli E, Gorska A, Carrara E, Davis RJ, Bonten M, Friedrich AW, Glasner C, Goossens H, Hasenauer J, Abad JMH, Peñalvo JL, Sanchez-Niubo A, Sialm A, Scipione G, Soriano G, Yazdanpanah Y, Vorstenbosch E, Jaenisch T. Challenges of data sharing in European COVID-19 projects: A learning opportunity for advancing pandemic preparedness and response. Lancet Reg Health Eur. Oct 2022;21:100467. doi: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2022.100467.

1. Kheifetz Y, Kirsten H, Schuppert A, Scholz M. Modeling the Complete Dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in Germany and Its Federal States Using Multiple Levels of Data. Viruses. July 14, 2025;17(7):981. doi: 10.3390/v17070981.
2. Horn M, Theilacker C, Sprenger R, von Eiff C, Mahar E, Schiffner-Rohe J, Pletz MW, van der Linden M, Scholz M. Mathematical modeling of pneumococcal transmission dynamics in response to PCV13 infant vaccination in Germany predicts an increasing burden of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) due to serotypes included in next-generation pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs). PLoS One. Feb 15, 2023;18(2):e0281261. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0281261.
3. Regenhardt E, Kirsten H, Weiss M, Lübbert C, Stehr SN, Remane Y, Pietsch C, Hönemann M, von Braun A. SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections with the Omicron and Delta Variants in Healthcare Workers. Vaccines (Basel). May 7, 2023;11(5):958. doi: 10.3390/vaccines11050958.
4. Kheifetz Y, Kirsten H, Scholz M. On the Parametrization of Epidemiological Models—Lessons from Modeling the COVID-19 Epidemic. Viruses. July 2, 2022;14(7):1468. doi: 10.3390/v14071468.
5. Bracher J, Wolffram D, Deuschel J, Görgen K, Ketterer JL, Ullrich A, Abbott S, Barbarossa MV, Bertsimas D, Bhatia S, Bodych M, Bosse NI, Burgard JP, Castro L, Fairchild G, Fiedler J, Fuhrmann J, Funk S, Gambin A, Gogolewski K, Heyder S, Hotz T, Kheifetz Y, Kirsten H, Krueger T, Krymova E, Leithäuser N, Li ML, Meinke JH, Miasojedow B, Michaud IJ, Mohring J, Nouvellet P, Nowosielski JM, Ozanski T, Radwan M, Rakowski F, Scholz M, Soni S, Srivastava A, Gneiting T, Schienle M. National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021. Commun Med (Lond). Oct. 31, 2022;2(1):136. doi: 10.1038/s43856-022-00191-8.

1. Schulte M, Leithäuser N, Mohring J. Estimating the effect of self-protection on the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany in 2021: a modeling study. BMC Public Health. April 14, 2026;26(1):1244. doi: 10.1186/s12889-026-27264-w.
2. Schulze, K., Löffler, J.L., and Voss, M. (2025), “Google Trends and Media Coverage: A Comparison During the COVID-19 Pandemic.” Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 33: e70045. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.70045.
3. Mohring J, Leithäuser N, Wlazło J, Schulte M, Pilz M, Münch J, Küfer KH. Estimating the prevalence of COVID-19 from wastewater. Sci Rep. June 22, 2024;14(1):14384. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-64864-1.

1. Gaskin T, Conrad T, Pavliotis GA, Schütte C. Neural parameter calibration and uncertainty quantification for epidemic forecasting. PLoS One. Oct. 17, 2024;19(10):e0306704. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0306704.
2. Alchikh M, Conrad TOF, Obermeier PE, Ma X, Schweiger B, Opota O, Rath BA. Disease Burden and Inpatient Management of Children with Acute Respiratory Viral Infections during the Pre-COVID Era in Germany: A Cost-of-Illness Study. Viruses. March 26, 2024;16(4):507. doi: 10.3390/v16040507.
3. Müller SA, Balmer M, Charlton W, Ewert R, Neumann A, Rakow C, Schlenther T, Nagel K. Predicting the effects of COVID-19-related interventions in urban settings by combining activity-based modeling, agent-based simulation, and mobile phone data. PLoS One. Oct 28, 2021;16(10):e0259037. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259037.

1. Schmidt A, Zunker H, Heinlein A, Kühn MJ. Graph neural network surrogates to leverage mechanistic expert knowledge for a reliable and immediate pandemic response. Sci Rep. Feb 13, 2026;16(1):6361. doi: 10.1038/s41598-026-39431-5
2. A. Wendler, L. Plötzke, H. Tritzschak, M. J. Kühn A nonstandard numerical scheme for a novel SECIR integro-differential equation-based model allowing nonexponentially distributed stay times. Applied Mathematics and Computation 509, 129636 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2025.129636
3. L. Plötzke, A. Wendler, R. Schmieding, M. J. Kühn Revisiting the Linear Chain Trick in epidemiological models: Implications of underlying assumptions for numerical solutions. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 239, pp. 823-844 (2026) doi: 10.1016/j.matcom.2025.07.045
4. S. Korf, S. J. Wagner, G. Köster, M. J. Kühn On the Effect of Missing Transmission Chain Information in Agent-Based Models: Outcomes of Superspreading Events and Workplace Transmission (2025). doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2026.118179
5. H. Zunker, P. Dönges, P. Lenz, S. Contreras, M. J. Kühn Risk-mediated dynamic regulation of effective contacts de-synchronizes outbreaks in metapopulation epidemic models. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 199(2), 116782 (2025).doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2025.116782
6. Schmid N, Bicker J, Hofmann AF, Wallrafen-Sam K, Kerkmann D, Wieser A, Kühn MJ, Hasenauer J. Integrative modeling of the spread of serious infectious diseases and corresponding wastewater dynamics. Epidemics. June 2025;51:100836. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2025.100836
7. D. Kerkmann, S. Korf, K. Nguyen, D. Abele, A. Schengen, C. Gerstein, J. H. Göbbert, A. Basermann, M. J. Kühn, M. Meyer-Hermann Agent-based modeling for realistic reproduction of human mobility and contact behavior to evaluate test and isolation strategies in epidemic infectious disease spread. Computers in Biology and Medicine 193, 110269 (2025). doi: 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2025.110269
8. JBicker J, Schmieding R, Meyer-Hermann M, Kühn MJ. Hybrid metapopulation agent-based epidemiological models for efficient insights at the individual level: A contribution to green computing. Infect Dis Model. Jan. 10, 2025;10(2):571-590. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.12.015
9. J. L. Malkus, M. L. Díaz, A. Schengen, T. Mocanu, M. J. Kühn An OpenStreetMap-based approach for generating capacity-restricted POIs for activity-based travel demand modeling. Procedia Computer Science, 238:420-427 (2024). doi: 10.1016/j.procs.2024.06.043
10. Henrik Zunker, René Schmieding, David Kerkmann, Alain Schengen, Sophie Diexer, Rafael Mikolajczyk, Michael Meyer-Hermann, Martin J. Kühn. Novel travel-time-aware metapopulation models: A combination with multi-layer waning immunity to assess late-phase epidemic and endemic scenarios. (2024). doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012630
11. Lange B, Jaeger VK, Harries M, Rücker V, Streeck H, Blaschke S, Petersmann A, Toepfner N, Nauck M, Hassenstein MJ, Dreier M, von Holt I, Budde A, Bartz A, Ortmann J, Kurosinski MA, Berner R, Borsche M, Brandhorst G, Brinkmann M, Budde K, Deckena M, Engels G, Fenzlaff M, Härtel C, Hovardovska O, Katalinic A, Kehl K, Kohls M, Krüger S, Lieb W, Meyer-Schlinkmann KM, Pischon T, Rosenkranz D, Rübsamen N, Rupp J, Schäfer C, Schattschneider M, Schlegtendal A, Schlinkert S, Schmidbauer L, Schulze-Wundling K, Störk S, Tiemann C, Völzke H, Winter T, Klein C, Liese J, Brinkmann F, Ottensmeyer PF, Reese JP, Heuschmann P, Karch A. Estimates of protection levels against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 in Germany before the 2022/2023 winter season: the IMMUNEBRIDGE project. Infection. Feb 2024;52(1):139-153. doi: 10.1007/s15010-023-02071-2.

1. Glock M, Erdekian A, Rueb M, Uhl F, Husemann R, Stoffers-Winterling J, Lindner S, Tüscher O, Hölzel LP, Lieb K, Adorjan K, Wiegand HF. Utilization of mental health services during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic—a systematic review and meta-analysis. Eur Psychiatry. Jan. 13, 2026;69(1):e10. doi: 10.1192/j.eurpsy.2025.10119.
2. Ziegler A, Kunzler AM, Voigt-Radloff S, Schmitt J, Moerer O, Scheithauer S, Heytens H, Apfelbacher C, Meerpohl JJ. Prioritization of Research Questions in Health Crises—Presentation of a Concept Developed During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Bundesgesundheitsblatt Gesundheitsforschung Gesundheitsschutz. Jan. 2025;68(1):97-104. German. doi: 10.1007/s00103-024-03985-4.
3. Scheithauer S, Hoffmann J, Lang C, Fenz D, Berens MM, Köster AM, Panchyrz I, Harst L, Adorjan K, Apfelbacher C, Ciesek S, Denkinger CM, Drosten C, Geraedts M, Hecker R, Hoffmann W, Karch A, Koch T, Krefting D, Lieb K, Meerpohl JJ, Rehfuess EA, Skoetz N, Sopka S, von Lengerke T, Wiegand H, Schmitt J. Pandemic Preparedness—A Proposal for a Research Infrastructure and Its Functionalities for a Resilient Health Research System. Gesundheitswesen. Dec 2025;87(S 03):S334–S343. English, German. doi: 10.1055/a-2365-9179.
4. Chaturvedi M, Bartz A, Denkinger CM, Klett-Tammen C, Kretzschmar M, Kuhlmann A, Lange B, Marx FM, Mikolajczyk R, Monsef I, Nguyen HT, Suer J, Skoetz N, Jaeger VK, Karch A. Guidelines on reporting and assessing dynamic mathematical models of infectious diseases: a scoping review. BMC Infect Dis. Dec. 31, 2025;26(1):182. doi: 10.1186/s12879-025-12211-8.
5. Erdekian A, Glock M, Huetter S, Rueb M, Riedinger D, Stoffers-Winterling J, Lindner S, Baum F, Hölzel LP, Tüscher O, Lieb K, Adorjan K, Wiegand HF. Utilization of psychiatric and psychotherapeutic care in Germany during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic—systematic review and meta-analysis [Utilization of mental health services in Germany during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic—Systematic review and meta-analysis]. Nervenarzt. May 2025;96(3):257-265. German. doi: 10.1007/s00115-025-01812-y.
6. Wiegand HF, Adorjan K, Stoffers-Winterling J, Scheithauer S, Schmitt J, Tüscher O, Falkai P, Lieb K. Mental health and psychiatric-psychotherapeutic care as elements of “pandemic and crisis preparedness” [Mental health and mental healthcare as elements of pandemic and crisis preparedness]. Nervenarzt. May 2025;96(3):272-277. German. doi: 10.1007/s00115-025-01822-w.
7. Morales I, Nguyen VK, Abd El Aziz M, Sultanli A, Bärnighausen T, Becher H, Ciesek S, Kampmann B, Lange B, Rupp J, Scheithauer S, Ward H, Karch A, Denkinger CM. Responsive population-based cohorts as platforms for characterizing pathogen- and population-level infection dynamics for epidemic prevention, preparedness, and response. Euro Surveill. June 2025;30(25):2400255. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2025.30.25.2400255. Erratum in: Euro Surveill. July 2025;30(28). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2025.30.28.250717c.
8. Böff L, Bartz A, Harries M; MuSPAD Consortium Group; COVIMOD Consortium Group; RESPINOW Consortium Group; Karch A, Aigner A, Jaeger VK, Lange B. Dynamics of contact behavior by self-reported COVID-19 vaccination and infection status during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany: an analysis of two large population-based studies. BMC Med. July 7, 2025;23(1):406. doi: 10.1186/s12916-025-04211-x.
9. Evers J, Altschuck N, Mehl C, Rüthrich L, Harst L, Walther F, Steidle O, Suckow A, Hecker R, Schmitt J, Geraedts M. Development of a pandemic-related core set of quality indicators for quality and patient safety in university hospitals in Germany. BMC Health Serv Res. Jan. 8, 2025;25(1):43. doi: 10.1186/s12913-024-12194-3.
10. Baum F, Schmitt J, Nagel O, Jacob J, Seifert M, Adorjan K, Tüscher O, Lieb K, Hölzel LP, Wiegand HF. Reductions in Inpatient and Outpatient Mental Health Care in Germany During the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic—What Can We Learn for Better Crisis Preparedness? Eur Arch Psychiatry Clin Neurosci. Dec 2024;274(8):2037-2046. doi: 10.1007/s00406-024-01909-6.
11. Littlecott H, Krishnaratne S, Burns J, Rehfuess E, Sell K, Klinger C, Strahwald B, Movsisyan A, Metzendorf MI, Schoenweger P, Voss S, Coenen M, Müller-Eberstein R, Pfadenhauer LM. Measures implemented in schools to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. May 2, 2024;5(5):CD015029. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD015029.pub2.
12. Fehr M, Köhler S, Roth-Sackenheim C, Geschke K, Tüscher O, Adorjan K, Lieb K, Hölzel LP, Wiegand HF. Outpatient mental health care during high-incidence phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany—changes in utilization, challenges, and post-COVID care. Eur Arch Psychiatry Clin Neurosci. Dec 2024;274(8):2025-2035. doi: 10.1007/s00406-024-01886-w.
13. Reinoso Schiller N, Baier C, Dresselhaus I, Loderstädt U, Schlüter D, Eckmanns T, Scheithauer S. Proposed new definition for hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infections: results of a confirmatory factor analysis. Antimicrob Steward Healthc Epidemiol. September 9, 2024;4(1):e125. doi: 10.1017/ash.2024.371.
14. Harries M, Jaeger VK, Rodiah I, Hassenstein MJ, Ortmann J, Dreier M, von Holt I, Brinkmann M, Dulovic A, Gornyk D, Hovardovska O, Kuczewski C, Kurosinski MA, Schlotz M, Schneiderhan-Marra N, Strengert M, Krause G, Sester M, Klein F, Petersmann A, Karch A, Lange B. Bridging the gap—estimation of the 2022/2023 SARS-CoV-2 healthcare burden in Germany based on multidimensional data from a rapid epidemic panel. Int J Infect Dis. Feb 2024;139:50-58. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2023.11.014.
15. Marsall P, Fandrich M, Griesbaum J, Harries M, Lange B; RESPINOW Study Consortium; Ascough S, Dayananda P, Chiu C, Remppis J, Ganzenmueller T, Renk H, Strengert M, Schneiderhan-Marra N, Dulovic A. Development and validation of a respiratory syncytial virus multiplex immunoassay. Infection. April 2024;52(2):597-609. doi: 10.1007/s15010-024-02180-6.
16. Chaturvedi M, Rodiah I, Kretzschmar M, Scholz S, Lange B, Karch A, Jaeger VK. Estimating the relative importance of epidemiological and behavioral parameters for mpox transmission: a modeling study. BMC Med. July 18, 2024;22(1):297. doi: 10.1186/s12916-024-03515-8.
17. Reinoso Schiller N, Usipbekova K, Hille K, Dreesman J, Schwarz K, Reimers K, Feil F, Scheithauer S. Pandemic management: Analysis of the availability and relevance of surveillance indicators by COVID task forces in the German federal state of Lower Saxony. Infect Prev Pract. June 15, 2023;5(3):100294. doi: 10.1016/j.infpip.2023.100294.
18. Engels G, Oechsle AL, Schlegtendal A, Maier C, Holzwarth S, Streng A, Lange B, Karch A, Petersmann A, Streeck H, Blaschke-Steinbrecher S, Härtel C, Schroten H, von Kries R, Berner R, Liese J, Brinkmann F, Toepfner N; IMMUNEBRIDGE KIDS study group. SARS-CoV-2 seroimmunity and quality of life in children and adolescents in relation to infections and vaccinations: the IMMUNEBRIDGE KIDS cross-sectional study, 2022. Infection. Oct. 2023;51(5):1531-1539. doi: 10.1007/s15010-023-02052-5.

1. Schmidt A, Zunker H, Heinlein A, Kühn MJ. Graph neural network surrogates to leverage mechanistic expert knowledge for a reliable and immediate pandemic response. Sci Rep. Feb 13, 2026;16(1):6361. doi: 10.1038/s41598-026-39431-5.
2. L. Plötzke, A. Wendler, R. Schmieding, M. J. Kühn Revisiting the Linear Chain Trick in epidemiological models: Implications of underlying assumptions for numerical solutions. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 239, pp. 823-844 (2026) doi: 10.1016/j.matcom.2025.07.045
3. A. Wendler, L. Plötzke, H. Tritzschak, M. J. Kühn A nonstandard numerical scheme for a novel SECIR integro-differential equation-based model allowing nonexponentially distributed stay times. Applied Mathematics and Computation 509, 129636 (2026) doi: 10.1016/j.amc.2025.129636
4. H. Zunker, P. Dönges, P. Lenz, S. Contreras, M. J. Kühn Risk-mediated dynamic regulation of effective contacts de-synchronizes outbreaks in metapopulation epidemic models (2025). doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2025.116782
5. D. Kerkmann, S. Korf, K. Nguyen, D. Abele, A. Schengen, C. Gerstein, J. H. Göbbert, A. Basermann, M. J. Kühn, M. Meyer-Hermann Agent-based modeling for realistic reproduction of human mobility and contact behavior to evaluate test and isolation strategies in epidemic infectious disease spread. Computers in Biology and Medicine 193, 110269 (2025). doi: 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2025.110269
6. Diallo D, Schoenfeld J, Schmieding R, Korf S, Kühn MJ, Hecking T. Integrating Human Mobility Models with Epidemic Modeling: A Framework for Generating Synthetic Temporal Contact Networks. Entropy (Basel). May 8, 2025;27(5):507. doi: 10.3390/e27050507
7. Bicker J, Schmieding R, Meyer-Hermann M, Kühn MJ. Hybrid metapopulation agent-based epidemiological models for efficient insights at the individual level: A contribution to green computing. Infect Dis Model. Jan. 10, 2025;10(2):571-590. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.12.015