OptimAgent

Optimal control of the epidemic unter heterogeneity conditions – decision making perspective on agent based modeling

Project objectives

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic poses an unprecedented challenge to society and politicy-making. The goal of OptimAgent is to develop a standardized model-based framework to support public health decision-making processes. This framework will enable the evaluation of a wide range of infection control interventions. The focus is on the design of an agent-based model that goes significantly beyond the simulation approaches available to date.
Through a flexible modular structure and an extensive consultation process with national and international modeling experts, the model will be optimized to inform health policy decision-making during future pandemics.

Furthermore, it will be adaptable to endemic pathogens and realistically reflect the socio-demographic and regional structures of Germany. The agents underlying the model combine demographic, socioeconomic, sociological and psychological characteristics that influence individual contact behavior, risk of infection and risk of disease.
Based on the results of comprehensive and sophisticated analyses of contact behavior, specific model modules on selective, targeted contact restraints in different settings, contact tracking and testing strategies are developed. The flexible modular design of the model also offers possibilities for easy integration of additional components.

The main focus of the project is to analyze the impact of different aspects of heterogeneity in the population structure and their interaction on the incidence of infection. This will provide new insights regarding the role of heterogeneity in the spread of severe respiratory infectious diseases in the population and the effectiveness of pandemic control measures.

Project structure

OptimAgent is divided into the phases “Conceptualization”, “Development & Analysis” and “Application” and comprises six interlinked sub-projects.

Subproject 1 – Heterogeneity in contact behavior and in the uptake of preventive measures in different phases of an epidemic

Explores heterogeneity in contact behaviors and compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions and their impact on transmission patterns across the population

Subproject 2 – Heterogeneity of the socio-psychological determinants of health behaviors

Focuses on psychosocial aspects that influence health behavior and creates a module to generate artificial populations

Subproject 3 – Estimation of spatial and temporal heterogeneity – Methods for parameterization and learning of models

Develops a principled approach to deriving time- and spatially-resolved epidemiological parameters from multiple data sources

Subproject 4 – Development of representative scenario populations for epidemiological models

Develops a tool to generate representative scenario populations for epidemiological models

Subproject 5 – Development of the German Epidemic Micro-Simulation System

Will develop an agent-based reference model for Germany that integrates work from subprojects 1-4 and 6 and enables simulation of complex scenarios.

Subproject 6 – Effects of synergistic interactions between exposure and susceptibility to infectious diseases on socioeconomic inequalities in disease burden and the effects of infection control measures

Creates a decision analytic module that estimates effectiveness and efficiency of alternative non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Project leaders and partners

Overall project: Prof. Dr. Rafael Mikolajczyk, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg

Subproject 1

Prof. Dr. André Karch (subproject leader), University Münster
Dr. Veronika Jäger, University Münster
Phuong Huynh, University Münster
Prof. Dr. Rafael Mikolajczyk, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg
Chao Xu, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg
Prof. Dr. Vitaly Belik, Free University of Berlin
Dr. Andrzej K. Jarynowski, Free University of Berlin
Dr. Steven Schulz, NET CHECK
Richard Pastor, NET CHECK

Subproject 2

Prof. Dr. André Calero Valdez (subproject leader), University of Lübeck
Lilian Kojan, University of Lübeck

Subproject 3

Prof. Dr. Markus Scholz (subproject leader), University Leipzig

Subproject 4

Prof. Dr. Jan Pablo Burgard (subproject leader), University of Trier
Prof. Dr. Ralf Münnich, University Trier
Soheil Shams, University Trier
João Vitor Pamplona, University Trier

Subproject 5

Dr. Wolfgang Bock (subproject leader), Linnaeus University
Dr. Sudarshan Tiwari, University of Kaiserslautern-Landau
Dr. Bernd Hellingrath, University Münster
Johannes Ponge, University Münster
Janik Suer, University Münster
Dr. Johannes Horn, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg
Prof. Dr. Mirjam E. Kretzschmar, University Medical Center Utrecht
Prof. Dr. Tyll Krüger, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology

Subproject 6

Jun.-Prof. Dr. Alexander Kuhlmann (subproject leader), Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg
Dr. Berit Lange, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research
Dr. Isti Rodiah, Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research
Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Greiner, Bielefeld University
Maren Steinmann, Bielefeld University
Sebastian Gruhn, Bielefeld University
Dr. Beate Jahn, UMIT Tirol – Private University for Health Sciences and Health Technology
Prof. Dr. Uwe Siebert, UMIT Tirol – Private University for Health Sciences and Health Technology

Scientific Advisory Board

Vittoria Colizza, Head of Research at the Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology

Luca Ferretti, Senior Researcher at the Big Data Institute, University of Oxford

Simon Cauchemez, Head of the Department of Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at the Institut Pasteur

Stefan Flasche, Co-Director of the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

Franciszek Rakowski.
Head of the Polish modeling team, ICM University of Warsaw

Nicolas Popper, Chairman of DEXHELPP (Decision Support for Health Policy and Planning), Coordinator of COCOS (Centre for Computational Complex Systems), Vienna University of Technology