What? Young Scientist lecture with guest speaker Houda Yaqine (Bielefeld University) – “Capturing Household-level Dynamics in Stochastic Differential Equation Models of Infectious Disease Transmission”
When: September 6, 2024, 10 a.m. (CET)
Abstract (in English):
Infectious diseases pose a significant and persistent challenge to global public health, leading to significant mortality and disability worldwide. It is crucial to understand the mechanisms of disease transmission to devise effective interventions and assess the outcomes of health policies. Our study introduces a new SIR stochastic model that depicts the variable transmission rates within households, thus deepening our understanding of infection dynamics. This model integrates household structure and varied mixing patterns, defined by the average contact rates across distinct population subgroups. We employ Markov jump processes, which are later approximated by diffusion processes through stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Our simulations are geared towards evaluating the model’s behavior in different scenarios and its sensitivity to a range of parameters. We also demonstrate a refined simulation of contact matrices that distinguish between consistent and diverse social interactions, incorporating a public policy aspect to model both targeted and broad interventions. This approach aims to improve public health responses and intervention strategies by providing a more accurate representation of disease transmission.
Further information on the guest speaker and the dial-in link can be found here.
