3rd (Inter-) National Conference on Modeling Infectious Diseases

February 26 – 28, 2025 in Berlin

GLS Event Campus Berlin

Time	DAY 1: Wednesday – February 26, 2025	Room
08:30 – 09:55	REGISTRATION	Foyer in House 1
10:00 – 10:45	WELCOMING Moderation: A. Kuhlmann, B. Lange & R. Mikolajczyk Welcome from the – MONID Board – MinDirig’in Katharina Peter (BMBF) – RKI President Prof. Dr. Lars Schaade – Program Committee(Highlights)	Auditorium
10:45 – 11:15	COFFEE BREAK & PHOTOS	Lounge
11:15 – 12:15	KEYNOTE I – Prof. Alessia Melegaro (Bocconi University, Italy) “From behavioral science to mathematical modelling: adding realism to infectious disease models” Moderation: A. Kuhlmann	Auditorium
12:15 – 13:00	ELEVATOR PITCHES Moderation: A. Kuhlmann	Auditorium
13:00 – 14:00	LUNCH BREAK	Restaurant Oderberger
	PARALLEL SESSIONS:
14:00 – 15:30	PROJECT UPDATES I OptimAgent & PREPARED & RESPINOW	R121
14:00 – 15:30	CONTRIBUTED TALKS I – Modeling of interventions & decision-making Chair: Jan Mohring/Ingo Timm, Co-Chair: Veronika Kurchyna	Auditorium
14:00 – 14:15	Cornelia Pokalyuk (University of Lübeck) “Inter-city infections and the role of size heterogeneity in containment strategies”
14:15 – 14:30	Christoph Sticha (Fraunhofer Institute for Translational Medicine and Pharmacology ITMP, LMU University Hospital, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich) “A General Deterministic Model of Ordinary Differential Equations for a Broad Variety of Different Diseases”
14:30 – 14:45	Lilian Kojan (University of Lübeck) “A matter of priorities: A discrete choice experiment on public preferences for the management of respiratory epidemics” (OptimAgent)
14:45 – 15:00	Sascha Korf (German Aerospace Center) “Agent-based modeling for realistic reproduction of human mobility and contact behavior to evaluate test and isolation strategies in epidemic infectious disease spread” (LOKI/PANDEMOS)
15:00 – 15:15	Isti Rodiah (Helmholtz Center for Infection Research) “Scenarios for RSV Dynamics in the 2024-2025 Season in Germany: Evaluating the Impact of Targeted Interventions with Adaptive Modeling and Population-Based Data – RESPINOW Study” (RESPINOW)
15:15 – 15:30	Johannes Horn (Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg) “Constructing a realistic population to improve modeling precision for future pandemics” (OptimAgent)
14:00 – 15:30	CONTRIBUTED TALKS II – Technical implementation of models & applications Chair: Tim Conrad, Co-Chair: Inan Bostanci	R112
14:00 – 14:15	Jan Hasenauer (Rhenish Friedrich Wilhelm University of Bonn) “Integrative Modeling of the Spread of Serious Infectious Diseases and Corresponding Wastewater Dynamics” (INSIDe)
14:15 – 14:30	Hugo Soubrier (Epicentre/MSF and Charité – Berlin University of Medicine) “Unravelling the chains of transmission of the 9th Ebola outbreak in DRC, 2018”
14:30 – 14:45	Anna Wendler (German Aerospace Center) “An extension of age-of-infection models: A SECIR model based on integro-differential equations for epidemic outbreaks” (LOKI)
14:45 – 15:00	Aleksandr Bryzgalov (Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg) “Effects of heterogeneity in the contact numbers on the spread of respiratory infections: weekends reduction of contacts” (OptimAgent)
15:00 – 15:15	Joao-Marcelo Braza-Protazio (Federal University of Pará, Brazil and University of Leipzig) “FluModell: A Discrete SEIRS Model Applied to the Simulation of Seasonal Influenza: A Study Case applied to the German Health System” (PROGNOSIS)
15:15 – 15:30	Marvin Schulte (Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Mathematics ITWM, University of Kaiserslautern-Landau) “Inferring the effect of self-protective behavior on transmission dynamics” (SEMSAI)
15:30 – 16:00	COFFEE BREAK	Lounge
16:00 – 17:30	MINI-SYMPOSIUM I The importance of pathogen carriage and asymptomatic infections when modelling infectious disease dynamics and public health interventions Moderation: Stefan Flasche	Auditorium
	Marc Jit (New York University, USA) “Why it matters to model pathogen carriage and asymptomatic infections accurately when inferring infectious disease dynamics and the impact of public health and social measures”
	Alexander Kuhlmann (University of Lübeck) “Impact of the invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) serotype carriage and distribution for modelling the implementation of effective and efficient pneumococcal vaccination strategies in Germany”
	Felix Günther (Robert Koch Institute) “How modelling meningococcal serotype carriage and vaccination strategies for Germany has highlighted the potential for serotype replacement and the need for future data collections”
	Stefan Flasche (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK and Charité – Berlin University of Medicine) “Asymptomatic infections; a key ingredient to pandemic response”
17:30 – 19:00	POSTERSESSION Accompanying sharing mode: senior + young scientist	Lounge & R101
19:00 – 20:00	SCIENCE SLAM	Auditorium
20:00 – 22:00	Get-together	Restaurant Oderberger

	DAY 2: Thursday – February 27, 2025
09:00 – 10:30	MINI-SYMPOSIUM II Inferring contact patterns to understand disease spread: integrating mobile phone data and surveys Moderation: Andrzej Jarynowski (Free University of Berlin)	Auditorium
	Veronika Jäger (University of Münster) and Vitaly Belik (Freie Universität Berlin) “Introduction to COVIMOD Contact Survey and NET CHECK co-location data”
	Huynhn Thi Phuong (University of Münster) “Social contacts: insights from contact surveys and mobile phone data”
	Chao Xu (Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg) “Contact Variation in Germany During COVID-19: The Role of Demographics, Self-risk Perception, Vaccination, and States”
	Steven Schulz (NET CHECK GmbH, Berlin) “Euro 2024 in Germany: Using Mobile Phone Contact Data to Analyze the Impact of Mass Gatherings on Respiratory Infection Risk”
	Sebastian A. Müller (Technical University of Berlin) “Comparing GPS and cell-based mobile phone data to identify activity participation during the COVID-19 pandemic”
10:30 – 11:00	COFFEE BREAK	Lounge
11:00 – 12:00	KEYNOTE II – Prof. John Edmunds (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK) “The use of mathematical modeling for decision-making in the UK” Moderation: R. Mikolajczyk	Auditorium
12:00 – 13:00	LUNCH BREAK	Restaurant Oderberger
	PARALLEL SESSIONS:
13:00 – 14:30	PROJECT UPDATES II INSIDe & PROGNOSIS & LOKI & MODUS-COVID	R121
13:00 – 14:30	CONTRIBUTED TALKS III – Methodological research & transmission dynamics Chair: André Karch, Co-Chair: Antonia Bartz	R112
13:00 – 13:15	Matthias Müller-Hannemann (Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg) “Dynamic Traffic Assignment for Public Transport with Applications to Epidemic Spread Modeling” (OptimAgent)
13:15 – 13:30	René Schmieding (German Aerospace Center) “Novel travel time aware metapopulation models and multi-layer waning immunity for late-phase epidemic and endemic scenarios” (LOKI/PANDEMOS)
13:30 – 13:45	Cana Kussmaul (Max Planck Institute for Infection Biology) “Assessing the consequences of weather model misspecification in transmission models of infectious diseases”
13:45 – 14:00	Julia Bicker (German Aerospace Center) “Hybrid metapopulation-agent-based epidemiological models for efficient insight on the individual scale: a contribution to green computing” (INSIDe)
14:00 – 14:15	Hannah Derwanz (Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg) “Disparities in Intervention Stringency and Adherence during Epidemics” (OptimAgent)
14:15 -14:30	Irene Garcia-Fogeda (University of Antwerp, BE) “Within-host mathematical models to study antibody kinetics after the prophylactic Ebola vaccine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo”
13:00 – 14:30	CONTRIBUTED TALKS IV – Human behavior & social contact structures Chair: Viola Priesemann, Co-Chair: Laura Müller	Auditorium
13:00 – 13:15	Henrik Zunker (German Aerospace Center) “Risk-mediated self-regulation of contacts desynchronizes outbreaks in metapopulation epidemic models” (LOKI/PANDEMOS)
13:15 – 13:30	Sydney Paltra (Technical University of Berlin) “Bimodal Contact Reductions and the Persistence of Social Homophily during the COVID-19 pandemic” (MODUS-COVID/infoXpand)
13:30 – 13:45	Andreas Reitenbach (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology) “From Influence to Incidence: Comparing social influence models of protective behavior in epidemics” (infoXpand)
13:45 – 14:00	Leonard Stellbrink (University of Lübeck) “How Social Influence Shapes Protective Behaviors: Results From a Cross-Sectional Survey” (infoXpand)
14:00 – 14:15	Hendrik Nunner (University of Lübeck) “Selective Contact Reduction and its Role in Shaping Disease Dynamics in Social Networks” (infoXpand)
14:15 -14:30	Silvan Wehrli (Robert Koch Institute) “How fringe are fringe communities? A case study on the COVID-19 vaccination discourse on Telegram, X/Twitter and online news in German”
14:30 – 15:00	COFFEE BREAK	Lounge
	PARALLEL SESSIONS:
15:00 – 16:30	PROJECT UPDATES III infoXpand & SEMSAI & PANDEMOS	R121
15:00 – 16:30	CONTRIBUTED TALKS V – Modeling of interventions & decision-making Chair: Rafael Mikolajczyk, Co-Chair: Beryl Musundi	Auditorium
15:00 – 15:15	Marc Jit (New York University, USA) “The Lancet Commission for Strengthening the Use of Epidemiological Modeling of Emerging and Pandemic Infectious Diseases”
15:15 – 15:30	Nicolas Franco (University of Namur, BE) “Living through COVID-19 without a vaccine: a retrospective analysis for Belgium”
15:30 – 15:45	Johannes Ponge (University of Münster) “The Trigger-Strategy-Measure Approach: Formalizing non-pharmaceutical interventions in agent-based models” (OptimAgent)
15:45 – 16:00	Noemi Castelletti (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich) “A Reaction Toolbox for Pandemic Preparedness: Integrating Cohort Studies, Remote Sampling, and Predictive Modeling”
16:00 – 16:15	Fabio Sartori (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology) “Social Heterogeneity in Disease Prevention: When Behavioral Polarization Helps and Harms” (infoXpand)
16:15 – 16:30	Prerika Nehra (Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg) “Cost effectiveness of architectural interventions to mitigate the spread of nosocomial infections in emergency departments in Germany: A model-based economic analysis” (OptimAgent)
15:00 – 16:30	CONTRIBUTED TALKS VI – Data acquisition & parameter estimation Chair: Markus Scholz, Co-Chair: tba	R112
15:00 – 15:15	Maged Mortaga (University of Lübeck) “Rapid Data Collection via Social Media Polls for Public Health” (infoXpand)
15:15 – 15:30	Thi Huyen Trang Nguyen (Hasselt University, BE) “Global Mobility Flows and COVID-19 Spread in Europe during the Emergency Phase: Insights from Facebook data”
15:30 – 15:45	Karina Wallrafen-Sam (Rhenish Friedrich Wilhelm University of Bonn) “Mathematical Model-Based Insights into Hepatitis E Transmission in Germany” (INSIDe)
15:45 – 16:00	Sarah Kramer (Max Planck Institute for Infection Biology) “Purely statistical methods of inferring causality between time series fail to accurately detect pathogen-pathogen interactions”
16:00 – 16:15	Billy Quilty (Charité – Berlin University of Medicine) “A Bayesian framework for estimating SARS-CoV-2 serological protection thresholds: Natural and hybrid immunity through four COVID-19 waves in South Africa”
16:15 – 16:30	Raquel Rubio Acero (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich) “VDPV2, from wastewater surveillance to a seroprevalence study” (INSIDe)
17:00 – 19:00	[Internal Meeting: SAB & SG MEETING MONID Steering Committee & SAB]	R121
	Posters are available for viewing & discussion (optional)

	DAY 3: Friday – February 28, 2025
	PARALLEL SESSIONS:
09:00 – 10:30	YOUNG MONID Panel Moderation: B. Musundi, M. Harries	R112
	Maren Steinmann (Bielefeld University) “Utilization of claims data for health economic modeling – Insights from RSV and its challenges”
	Martín Lotto Batista (Barcelona Supercomputing Center) “Leveraging Earth Observation data to predict climate-sensitive infectious disease dynamics”
	Julian Heidecke (Heidelberg University) “Modeling the impacts of climate change on West Nile virus transmission in Europe”
09:00 – 10:30	CONTRIBUTED TALKS VII – Modeling of interventions & decision-making Chair: Martin Kühn, Co-Chair: David Kerkmann	Auditorium
09:00 – 09:15	Markus Loeffler (University of Leipzig) “Intensive antigen based school testing during the COVID-pandemic saved about 1000 lives in Saxony – Results of a simulation study”
09:15 – 09:30	Alina Peter (TWT GmbH Science & Innovation) “Pandemic Preparedness through Digital Twin Modeling of a Hospital”
09:30 – 09:45	Abigail de Villiers for Florian M. Marx (Ruprecht Karl University of Heidelberg) “Modelling the population-level impact of novel tongue swab-based point-of-care nucleic acid amplification tests for tuberculosis in South Africa” (RESPINOW)
09:45 – 10:00	Alejandra Rincon Hidalgo (NET CHECK GmbH, Berlin) “Dissecting Epidemic Factors via Bayesian Analysis of GPS Contacts” (OptimAgent)
10:00 – 10:15	Beate Jahn (UMIT TIROL – Private University For Health Sciences and Health Technology, AT) “Health and Economic Impact of Delayed Access to Cancer Services due to Infectious Disease Interventions – a Modelling Study” (OptimAgent)
10:15 – 10:30	Julia Mayer (Charité – Berlin University of Medicine) “Modelling the added value of a monoclonal antibody administration at the beginning of their first RSV season for infants born to vaccinated mothers”
09:00 – 10:30	CONTRIBUTED TALKS VIII – Methodological research & transmission dynamics Chair: Berit Lange, Co-Chair: Isti Rodiah	R121
09:00 – 09:15	Jan Pablo Burgard (Trier University) “Gesyland: Georeferenced Synthetic Population of Germany” (OptimAgent)
09:15 – 09:30	Seba Contreras (Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization) “Testing artifacts may explain increased observed bacterial STI prevalence linked to HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP): a modeling study” (RESPINOW/infoXpand)
09:30 – 09:45	Ashish Thampi (NET CHECK GmbH, Berlin) “Historical community boundaries in Berlin as barriers for epidemic spread” (OptimAgent)
09:45 – 10:00	Ye Eun Bae (German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence GmbH) “Prognostic Influences on Trust and Risk Perception: Agent-Based Simulation of Health Protection Motivation During Pandemics” (SEMSAI)
10:00 – 10:15	Kristina Maier (Zuse Institute Berlin) “Hybrid ABM-PDE Models for Modeling Infection Spreading” (MODUS-COVID)
10:15 – 10:30	Matthieu Domenech de Cellès (Max Planck Institute for Infection Biology) “Immune boosting and the perils of inferring pertussis infection burden from seroprevalence studies: A mathematical modeling study”
10:30 – 11:00	COFFEE BREAK	Lounge
11:00 – 12:30	MINI-SYMPOSIUM III – Advanced Modeling Methods in Public Health and Infectious Disease Surveillance Moderation: Alexander Ullrich	Auditorium
	Ann Christin Vietor (Robert Koch Institute) “Collaborative development of a framework for automated signal detection for infectious disease outbreaks”
	Matthias an der Heiden (Robert Koch Institute) “Estimate excess mortality from time series data for mortality”
	Johannes Bracher (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology) “A statistical assessment of influenza intensity thresholds from the moving epidemic and WHO methods”
	Ulrich Reinacher (Robert Koch Institute) “Development of a nowcasting pilot for severe respiratory hospitalizations in Germany, and the potential future use and direction of nowcasting in public health”
11:00 – 12:30	[Internal Meeting: PROGNOSIS]	R121
12:30 – 13:30	CLOSING CEREMONY & AWARDS A. Kuhlmann & B. Lange & R. Mikolajczyk	Auditorium

Contact:
Carla Hartmann and Sabine Baumgarten (project management)
E-mail: modellierungsnetz@medizin.uni-halle.de